State of the Company - November

The United States has significantly increased its military presence in the Caribbean, deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group alongside destroyers, surveillance aircraft, and F-35 fighters in Puerto Rico. Although the official justification centers on expanded counternarcotics operations, the scale of the deployment suggests deeper strategic concerns. U.S. officials have cited intelligence indicating cartel linked maritime activity possibly receiving indirect support from elements of the Venezuelan state. Recent U.S. airstrikes on suspected trafficking vessels underscore Washington’s willingness to take kinetic action in the region. These developments have brought U.S.–Venezuela tensions to their highest point in years.

Venezuela has responded by declaring a state of external emergency and putting its armed forces on a wartime footing. Caracas is mobilizing military units across land, sea, air, and riverine domains while repositioning air defense systems to guard critical oil and energy infrastructure. Reports indicate Venezuela is preparing for a hybrid or guerrilla style defense strategy designed to sabotage and prolong any foreign intervention. The Maduro government’s close ties with Russia, China, and Iran further complicate the situation, raising the stakes and increasing the risks of miscalculation. The result is a volatile environment in which even a minor maritime incident could rapidly escalate into wider conflict.

Any conflict or sustained standoff in the Caribbean would have direct consequences for the region’s commercial shipping lanes, which handle much of Colombia’s coffee exports. Colombia relies heavily on Caribbean ports such as Cartagena and Santa Marta, both of which already face periodic congestion, container shortages, and long turnaround times. An increase in naval activity or heightened insurance risk could slow shipping schedules, force vessels to reroute, or discourage carriers from operating in the region altogether. These complications would directly affect how quickly and efficiently Colombian coffee reaches foreign markets. Inside Colombia, the cost of trucking coffee from interior growing regions to the coast would rise if fuel prices increased or logistical routes became less reliable.

These logistical pressures would occur at a time when Colombia is already facing production challenges due to weather variability, meaning any disruption could tighten global arabica supply more quickly than in a normal year. Importers might rush to secure alternative origins, and futures markets could react with volatility as traders price in supply uncertainty. Even short lived disruptions can influence prices for weeks, as green coffee inventories draw down faster than they can be replenished. Over the longer term, persistent instability could stall infrastructure projects designed to ease export burdens, including new port capacity intended to reduce shipping costs for Colombian producers.

We are continuing to monitor the situation and will update as necessary.